Ndi zaka zingati zomwe makampani osungiramo magetsi angakhale otchuka?

Malinga ndi zidziwitso zaposachedwa kwambiri zamakampani komanso kusanthula zomwe zikuchitika mu 2025, makampani osungira mphamvu apitilizabe kukula mtsogolomo, ndipo akuyembekezeka kupitilizabe kutentha mpaka 2030, ndikusuntha pang'onopang'ono kuchoka pakukula kupita ku chitukuko chapamwamba. Zotsatirazi ndikutanthauzira kwathunthu kuchokera pamiyeso ya zinthu zoyendetsera galimoto, kukula kwa msika, mayendedwe aukadaulo komanso zoopsa zomwe zingachitike:

1. Zinthu zazikulu zoyendetsera: mfundo + zofuna + ukadaulo "troika"

Thandizo la ndondomeko likupitirira kuwonjezeka

Pansi pa cholinga cha "carbon wapawiri" waku China, kusungirako mphamvu zatsopano kumatanthauzidwa momveka bwino ngati chithandizo chofunikira pomanga dongosolo lamagetsi latsopano. Mu 2025, ndondomekoyi idzasunthira ku chitukuko cha njira zoyendetsera msika, kuphatikizapo malipiro a mtengo wa magetsi, malonda a malo, zitsanzo zosungiramo mphamvu zogawana, ndi zina zotero, kulimbikitsa kusintha kwa kusungirako mphamvu kuchokera ku "ndondomeko" kupita ku "msika". Mwachitsanzo, malo ambiri ayambitsa ndondomeko zobwereketsa mphamvu zosungiramo mphamvu zatsopano kuti afufuze njira zopezera ndalama zosungiramo mphamvu kuti athe kutenga nawo mbali pamsika wamagetsi.

M'misika yakunja, United States, Europe, Middle East ndi madera ena amalimbikitsa kufunikira kwa ndalama zothandizira, zolimbikitsira misonkho komanso zofunikira pakupangira komweko. Mwachitsanzo, poyankha kukwera kwamitengo yosungira mphamvu mpaka 25% mu 2026, United States iwona kuthamangira kuyika mu 2025.

Kufunika kolimba kwa kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zatsopano

Gawo la mphamvu zatsopano zopangira magetsi likupitilira kukwera (China ikuyembekezeka kupitilira 20% mu 2025), ndipo kusakhazikika kwake kumafuna kusungirako mphamvu pakuwongolera pafupipafupi komanso pafupipafupi. Gawo la padziko lonse la mphamvu zatsopano zosungirako likuwonjezeka. Mu 2025, mphamvu yatsopano yapadziko lonse lapansi yoyika ma photovoltaic ikuyembekezeka kufika 490GW, ndikuyendetsa kukula kwakanthawi kosungirako mphamvu. Kuonjezera apo, zochitika zomwe zikubwera monga malo osungiramo deta zimakhala ndi zofuna zowonongeka za "photovoltaic storage integration", ndipo malo osungiramo zinthu zakale a photovoltaic ku Middle East ali kale ndalama.

Kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo ndi kuchepetsa mtengo

Ukadaulo wa ma cell a batri: ma cell a batire akuluakulu (500Ah +) ndi makina osungira mphamvu kwanthawi yayitali (4h +) akufulumizitsa kutchuka kwawo. Mu 2025, mtengo wamakina osungira mphamvu akuyembekezeka kutsika ndi 15% -20% poyerekeza ndi 202435.

Kugwiritsa ntchito zida zatsopano: Mabatire a sodium-ion alowa m'gawo lazamalonda, ndipo ubwino wa mabatire olimba muchitetezo ndi moyo ukuwonekera pang'onopang'ono. 2025 ikhoza kukhala chaka choyamba chakugwiritsa ntchito kwakukulu.

Kukwezera mwanzeru: Ukadaulo wa AI umakhathamiritsa dongosolo losungira mphamvu ndi chenjezo lolakwika, ndipo ukadaulo wamapasa wa digito umathandizira magwiridwe antchito ndi kukonza bwino510.

2. Kukula kwa msika: Kufalikira kwamayiko ambiri padziko lonse lapansi, mwayi wamapangidwe wawonekera

Kusiyana kwa msika wachigawo

China: Mu 2025, mphamvu yoyikapo mbali ya gwero-gridi ikuyembekezeka kupitirira 110GWh, ndi Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang ndi zigawo zina zamphamvu zatsopano zomwe zikutsogolera; kuchuluka kwa kusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kumbali ya ogwiritsa ntchito kumapitilira 50%, ndipo kugula kwapakati kwa mabizinesi owononga mphamvu kwambiri m'chigawo chapakati cha China kwakhala chizolowezi.

United States: Kuthamangira kukhazikitsa magetsi oyambira mita kwachititsa kuti mphamvu yatsopano yoyikidwa ipitirire 45GWh mu 2025, ndipo msika wopeza phindu lalikulu wakopa makampani aku China kuti atumize mphamvu zopangira zakomweko.

Europe: Ndalama zothandizira ndondomeko ndi njira zogulitsira malonda ndizokhwima, ndipo kukula kukuyembekezeka kupitirira 60% mu 2025, Germany ndi Spain monga misika yayikulu yowonjezereka.

Middle East: Mapulani atsopano osinthira mphamvu ku Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates ndi mayiko ena atulutsa mapulojekiti amtundu wa GWh, omwe atha kukhala msika wachinayi padziko lonse lapansi wosungira mphamvu mu 2025.

Mwayi wanjira zogawika

Kusungirako kwakukulu: Kuthekera kwatsopano kwapadziko lonse lapansi kumakhala kopitilira 70%, ndi mapulojekiti apamwamba a 10GWh ku Middle East ndi malo osungira magetsi odziyimira pawokha ku United States kukhala mphamvu yayikulu.

Kusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda: Kukula kwa msika wakunja kumaposa 100%, ndipo mawonekedwe ogwiritsira ntchito amakhala osiyanasiyana (monga malo osungiramo data ndi malo osungiramo mafakitale).

Kusungirako mphamvu kwa nthawi yayitali: Kufunika kwa makina otalika kuposa maola 4 kwachuluka, ndipo malonda a mabatire othamanga ndi matekinoloje osungiramo mphamvu ya mpweya wawonjezeka.

3. Kuwongolera kwaukadaulo: kuchokera ku "zazikulu" mpaka "zanzeru"

Maselo a batri okhala ndi mphamvu zazikulu ndi dongosolo kusakanikirana

Mu 2025, mphamvu ya ma cell a batri ambiri idzafika pa 400Ah +, ndipo mphamvu yosungira mphamvu ya 20-foot idzaposa 8MWh. Makampani otsogola monga CATL ndi Envision Energy azitsogolera kukweza kwaukadaulo.

Kupambana muukadaulo watsopano wosungira mphamvu

Mabatire a sodium-ion: BYD, CATL ndi ena akhazikitsa zinthu zosungira mphamvu zodzipatulira, ndipo mtengo wopangira misa ukuyembekezeka kukhala wotsika kuposa wa mabatire a lithiamu mu 2025.

Mabatire olimba: Qingtao Energy, Tailan New Energy ndi ma projekiti ena apangidwa, okhala ndi chitetezo chambiri chomwe chimasinthidwa ndi zochitika zazikulu zosungira mphamvu.

Kusungirako mphamvu kwamtundu wa gridi: Huawei ndi Sungrow akhazikitsa ukadaulo wothandizira pa gridi, ndipo kuchuluka kwamalowedwe kumatha kufika 7GW mu 2025.

Intelligence ndi zinthu zatsopano

AI imapatsa mphamvu kuneneratu kwa moyo wa batri komanso kugwira ntchito motetezeka ndi kukonza, ndipo zida za silicon carbide (SiC) zimawongolera magwiridwe antchito osinthira mphamvu zosungira mphamvu, ndikuyendetsa kachulukidwe kamagetsi kuti achuluke ndi 30%.

4. Zowopsa ndi zovuta zomwe zingatheke

Kusintha kwa mafakitale ndi mpikisano wokulirapo

Mu 2024, kufalikira kwamitengo yotsika kwamkati kudzapangitsa kuti mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati atuluke. Mu 2025, gawo lamsika pamabizinesi 10 apamwamba litha kupitilira 85%, ndipo mabizinesi omwe ali ndi ukadaulo wakumbuyo kapena chain capital capital angathetsedwe.

Kusatsimikizika kwa ndondomeko ndi njira za msika

M'madera ena, malamulo otumizira magetsi ndi opanda ungwiro, ndipo kusiyana kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali kumakhala kosakhazikika; ndondomeko ya tarifi ya US ndi zofunikira za mphamvu zopangira ku Middle East zimawonjezera zovuta zopita kunja.

Zolepheretsa zaukadaulo ndi kupsinjika kwa mtengo

Kuchulukitsidwa kwamagetsi a sodium kumalepheretsa kusinthasintha kwa mitengo ya lithiamu, mtengo wopangira mabatire olimba kwambiri ndi wokwera, ndipo mtengo wosungira mphamvu kwanthawi yayitali uyenera kuchepetsedwa mpaka pansi pa 0.3 yuan/kWh.

5. Chiyembekezo cham'tsogolo: Kukula kwakukulu kungayembekezeredwe chaka cha 2030 chisanafike

Kukula kwa msika

Akuti mphamvu yosungiramo mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi idzapitirira 250GWh mu 2025, ndipo malo amsika adzaposa 200 biliyoni; pofika chaka cha 2030, mphamvu yaku China yosungiramo mphamvu yatsopano yosungiramo mphamvu imatha kufika 220GW, ndipo mtengo wamakampaniwo udzapitilira yuan 3 thililiyoni.

Investment malangizo

Ulalo wotchinga wapamwamba: Zosinthira zamagetsi (PCS) ndi ophatikiza makina (monga Sungrow) ali ndi phindu lamphamvu komanso mtengo wapatali m'misika yakunja.

Makampani opanga zamakono: CATL (maselo a batri), Haichen Energy Storage (magetsi a sodium), Huawei (mtundu wa gridi yosungirako mphamvu), etc. ali ndi ubwino woyamba.

Njira yosungira mphamvu kwanthawi yayitali: Mabatire amadzimadzi amadzimadzi komanso mapulojekiti osungitsa mphamvu ya mpweya woponderezedwa alandila thandizo la mfundo ndipo ndi oyenera kuyika nthawi yayitali.

"Moto" wa mafakitale osungiramo mphamvu udzapitirirabe mpaka 2030, koma chitsanzo cha kukula chidzasintha kuchoka pakukula kwakukulu kupita ku ntchito zamakono zoyendetsedwa ndi teknoloji ndi msika. M'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi, makampani omwe ali ndi matekinoloje oyambira komanso kuthekera kwapadziko lonse lapansi adzalamulira msika, ndipo kulimba kwa chithandizo cha mfundo, kuthamanga kwa kuchepetsa mtengo waukadaulo, komanso kupita patsogolo kwa kusintha kwa msika wamagetsi ndizosintha zazikulu pakupitilira kutchuka kwamakampani. Otsatsa amatha kuyang'ana magawo ang'onoang'ono monga kusungirako kwakukulu, kusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi malonda, ndi magetsi a sodium / mabatire olimba a boma.