Kodi Kusungirako Mphamvu Kungatsanzire Chozizwitsa cha Kukula kwa Dzuwa ndi Mphepo?

Kodi Kusungirako Mphamvu Kungatsanzire Chozizwitsa cha Kukula kwa Dzuwa ndi Mphepo?

Mwayi Watsopano wa Madola Mabiliyoni Osinthira Mphamvu

Kuchokera "Kukula Mofulumira" kupita ku "Kupititsa patsogolo Ubwino ndi Kuchita Bwino"

Pofika kumapeto kwa February 2025, mphamvu zonse zaku China zoyika mphamvu zoyendera dzuwa ndi mphepo zidaposa ma kilowati 1.456 biliyoni, kumenya mphamvu zotentha kwanthawi yoyamba kukhala gwero lalikulu kwambiri lamagetsi mdzikolo. Dzuwa lakhala likupita patsogolo ndi chiwongola dzanja chopitilira 40% pachaka, motsogozedwa ndi ma projekiti omwe amagawidwa komanso kuyika koyambira kwakukulu pamlingo waukulu. Ngakhale kukula kwa mphamvu yamphepo kudatsika mpaka 17.6% chifukwa cha kuletsa kwa projekiti ndi kamangidwe kamangidwe, mphepo yamkuntho ndi kukonzanso kwa ma turbine akale kumakhalabe zoyendetsa kwanthawi yayitali. Komabe, kusakhazikika kwachilengedwe kwa zovuta zowonjezedwanso ndi zovuta zophatikiza ma gridi zakula, pomwe maola ogwiritsira ntchito magetsi akuchepera ndi maola 61 kuchokera chaka chatha. Izi zakakamiza kukula kwachuma kwa gridi kuti kukwezeke mpaka 33.5%, ndikuyika kusungirako mphamvu pamalo owonekera ngati "malo owongolera".

Kuchokera ku "Policy-Driven" kupita ku "Value Reality"

Pofika m'chaka cha 2024, mphamvu yowonjezera yowonjezera mphamvu yamtundu watsopano (ie, mabatire) ku China inafika pa 74.66 GW, mpaka 131.86% chaka ndi chaka ndikukhala mtundu wotsogola, m'malo osungira madzi opopera. Kuthamanga kotereku kumalimbikitsidwa ndi zifukwa zotsatirazi:

Kupanga kwaukadaulo komanso kutsika mtengo: Mitengo ya batri ya Lithium-ion yatsika ndi 60% kuyambira 2020, ndipo matekinoloje osungiramo mpweya opitilira 300 MW wa kalasi ya 3 ndi ma flywheel adalowa m'mafakitale, kupititsa patsogolo magwiridwe antchito ndi 5-XNUMX%.

Zolimbikitsa mfundo: Dongosolo la 14 lazaka zisanu lachitukuko cha New-Type Energy Storage lidapereka zolinga zomveka bwino pofika chaka cha 2025, pamodzi ndi zida zachigawo monga chipukuta misozi ndi mitengo yachigwa chapamwamba kuti aphatikize zosungirako m'misika yamagetsi.

Zofunikira za gridi ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana: Pamene kuchuluka kwa zongowonjezera zidadutsa 50% ya mphamvu zomwe zidayikidwa, zosowa zosinthika za gridi zidadutsa padenga. Kusungirako tsopano kukugwira ntchito zofunika kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito ngati kufalitsa koyambira, kumeta m'mafakitale/malonda, ndi magetsi adzidzidzi. Pachimake chachilimwe cha 2024, zosungirako zidatenga 45% yanthawi zonse zolipiritsa / zotulutsa, kupitilira 85% m'zigawo zina.

Zolinga Zosiyanasiyana za Kukula ndi Zovuta

Ngakhale onse amasangalala ndi chizindikiro cha mphamvu zoyera, zongowonjezedwanso ndi zosungira zimatsata njira zosiyanasiyana:

Kayendesedwe ka msika: Dzuwa/mphepo imakhala ndi ndalama zothandizira ndikuchepetsa mtengo wodalira, pomwe zosungira ziyenera kupindula pakupanga ndalama kudzera m'misika yamagetsi.

Njira zaukadaulo: Ukadaulo wa solar/mphepo umatengera mtundu wa zinthu (monga silicon PV, ma turbines odyetsedwa kawiri), pomwe zosungira zimasiyanasiyana (lithiamu, mabatire otuluka, mpweya woponderezedwa, ndi zina).

Mitundu yandalama: Zowonjezedwanso zimasangalala ndi mitengo yophatikizika, pomwe zosungirako zimalowa m'mitsinje ingapo: kuwongolera mphamvu, ntchito zowonjezera, ndi kubwereketsa mphamvu.

Zovuta zomwe zilipo pano zikuphatikiza kusagwiritsidwa ntchito mochepera (30% kuchuluka kwa mphamvu pama projekiti ena), zochitika zachitetezo zomwe zimapangitsa kuti munthu asakhale ndi chidaliro, komanso njira zotumizira zosamalizidwa m'madera osiyanasiyana. Ndondomeko monga 2024 Energy Law, komabe, zikufulumizitsa njira zokhazikitsidwa ndi msika zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito posungira mu grid resiliency ndi kulipira mphamvu.

Kodi Zosungira Zikupita Kuti?

Kuyerekeza kwamakampani kukuwona mphamvu yaku China yosungira mphamvu zatsopano pa 220 GW mu 2030, kukula kwa msika kupitilira ¥3 thililiyoni. Njira zitatu ndizo maziko a masomphenya awa:

Zofunikira pakusintha ma gridi: Zowonjezedwanso zidzakhala ma kilowatts makumi mabiliyoni mu 2060, ndikusungirako kukhala vertex ya kuphatikiza kwa "generation-grid-load-storage".

Kusiyanasiyana kwaukadaulo: Mabatire a sodium-ion, kusungirako mphamvu yokoka, ndi matekinoloje ena ali kale mu magawo oyendetsa, pomwe mtengo wosungira kwa nthawi yayitali (maola 4+) udzatsika ndi 40%.

Kukula kwapadziko lonse: 90% ya mabatire osungira lifiyamu padziko lonse lapansi amapangidwa ndi makampani aku China, omwe akufunika kwambiri m'misika ngati Southeast Asia ndi South Africa zomwe zikuwonjezera kukonzanso fakitale.

Kusungirako Si "Dzuwa Lina / Mphepo" - Ndi "Mapangidwe Atsopano" a Kusintha kwa Mphamvu

Ngakhale dzuwa ndi mphepo zimapereka "m'badwo," kusungirako kumasamalira "kukhazikika." Kusintha kwake kumatengera kusintha kwa msika wamagetsi, kukhwima kwaukadaulo, komanso kugwiritsa ntchito momwazika. Monga momwe mfundo, misika, ndi zatsopano zimakumana, kusungirako kuli panjira yosiyana kuchokera ku zongowonjezeranso ndipo kuli pafupi kukhala malire odalirika kwambiri a madola thililiyoni pampikisano wosalowerera ndale wa kaboni.