Kusungirako mphamvu zamalonda ndi mafakitale kungayambitse chitukuko m'chaka chomwe chikubwera!

Ndikukula kwa kusintha kwa mphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi komanso cholinga cha "dual carbon", kusungirako mphamvu zamalonda ndi mafakitale kumabweretsa mwayi wachitukuko womwe sunachitikepo. Zikuyembekezeka kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wosungira mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda uwonetsa kukula kwamphamvu, kuthandizira kwa mfundo zochokera ku maboma, kukula bwino pakati pa kupezeka kwa msika ndi kufunikira, komanso mwayi wopeza phindu, pamodzi ndikuyendetsa gawoli kukhala gawo latsopano.

Choyamba, Kukula Kwamsika ndi Kukhazikitsidwa kwa Mphamvu Zowonetsera

* Kukula kwa Msika: Malinga ndi lipoti la Dataintelo, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wosungira mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda ukhala pafupifupi $15 biliyoni mu 2023, ndipo ukuyembekezeka kukula mpaka $45 biliyoni pofika 2032 pamlingo wokulirapo pachaka (CAGR) wa 12.5%.

* Kuthekera kokhazikitsidwa: TrendForce ikuyembekeza kuti mphamvu zokhazikitsidwa padziko lonse lapansi zosungirako mphamvu zatsopano zidzafika 86 GW/221 GWh mu 2025, kukula kwa 27%/36% pachaka kuyambira 2024, ndikusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kumachita gawo lofunikira.

* Kuchita kwamsika wogawika (mwachitsanzo, msika waku US)

Malinga ndi lipoti la US Energy Storage Monitor lofalitsidwa ndi American Council for Clean Energy (ACP) ndi Wood Mackenzie, msika wosungira mphamvu ku US (zothandizira, zogawidwa, zamalonda, ndi mafakitale) zidzawonjezera pafupifupi 15.2 GW / 48.7 GWh ya kukhazikitsa kwatsopano mu 2025, zomwe:

Mbali yothandizira: ikuyembekezeka kukula ndi 22%, ndikuwerengera gawo lalikulu kwambiri;

Kusungidwa kwa mphamvu zogawidwa: zosasunthika kwambiri ndi ndondomeko, kusintha kwachilimbikitso;

Mbali yazamalonda ndi mafakitale: imakhalabe yolimba, ndikuyika kwatsopano pafupifupi 0.4 GW/0.8 GWh, kukwera pafupifupi 11% pachaka.

* Kuchita bwino kwa msika wapadziko lonse lapansi

Malinga ndi Wood Mackenzie Q2 2024 "Global Energy Storage Market Outlook", pofika kumapeto kwa 2024, mphamvu zapadziko lonse (kupatula posungira zopopera) za 159 GW/358 GWh, zikuyembekezeka kuti kuyambira 2024-2033 zidzawonjezedwanso 926 GW/2 789 XNUMX GW.

Deta iyi ikuwonetsa kuti, pakuwongolera kukula kwaukadaulo komanso mtengo womwe ukupitilirabe kutsika, malo omwe adayikidwapo osungiramo mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda adzabweretsa chiwonjezeko chachikulu mchaka chomwe chikubwera.

Chachiwiri, Mipikisano mayiko yabwino superposition

1. United States

* Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) ikupitilizabe kupereka ndalama zokwana 30% za msonkho wa ndalama (ITC), komanso zolimbikitsira popanga zinthu zapakhomo ndi maprojekiti ammudzi omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa.

* FERC Order 841 imakankhira kuti atsegule misika yamagetsi kuti asungidwe mphamvu ndikulimbikitsa kutenga nawo gawo pakusunga pafupipafupi komanso misika yamagetsi.

* 3.8 GW ya malo osungiramo mphamvu zatsopano ku US mu Q3 2024, kukwera ndi 80% chaka ndi chaka, ndipo pafupifupi 12 GW imayikidwa pachaka, yokwera kwambiri.

2. China

* Dongosolo la 14th lazaka zisanu limayika kusungirako mphamvu zatsopano monga chandamale chachikulu chachitukuko, ndikulingalira kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, mphamvu yoyikidwa yosungira mphamvu idzafika pa 30 miliyoni kilowatts (GW).

* Zilimbikitso zamitundu ingapo komanso kupanga msika wokwanira kuti mupititse patsogolo gawo la mafakitale ndi malonda panjira yosungira mphamvu.

3. Europe

* EU Renewable Energy Directive revision (RED II/III) kuti ilimbikitse zofunikira pakukula kwa synergistic yosungirako mphamvu ndi mphamvu zatsopano.

* Germany, United Kingdom ndi maiko ena akuyenera kukhazikitsa green hydrogen, njira zogawira mphamvu zosungira mphamvu kufalitsa ndalama zothandizira mabizinesi kuchepetsa ndalama zomanga.

4. Maiko akutukuka

* International Energy Agency (IEA) ikuyembekeza kuti ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zogulira mphamvu zoyera zidzafikira US $ 2.2 thililiyoni mu 2025, pomwe pafupifupi US $ 66 biliyoni idzayikidwa posungira mphamvu, kuwonetsa chidaliro cha likulu la mayiko pazabwino zopindulitsa pakusungirako mphamvu.

Malipiro a ndondomeko akuchulukana; ogwiritsa ntchito m'mafakitale ndi amalonda atha kulandira zolimbikitsira zingapo kuti apititse patsogolo kuthekera kwa projekiti ndikubwezeretsanso ndalama.

Chachitatu, kuchulukitsidwa kapena kuperewera?

* Mbali yothandizira: ndikukula kwa mphamvu zopangira mabatire (mafakitole a mabatire ku China, South Korea, ndi Europe akupitilizabe kubwera), mtengo wamakina osungira mphamvu watsika kuchoka ku US $ 780/kWh mu 2013 mpaka US $ 139/kWh mu 2023, kutsika kwa 80%.

* Mbali yofunikira: mbali yogwiritsira ntchito magetsi m'mafakitale ndi malonda ikuyang'anizana ndi kukwera kwakukulu kwa mtengo wamagetsi ndi kusiyana kwa mtengo wamagetsi, mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndi kupanikizika kwa malire a mphamvu, makamaka m'mapaki opangira zinthu, malo osungiramo data, malo opangira ndalama, ndi zochitika zina zogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri. Kufunika kosungirako mphamvu kwakula.

* Zofunikira zolimbitsa ma gridi: kulowetsedwa kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zatsopano kumabweretsa kuwongolera kwa gridi kovutirapo, kusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kungapereke "kuwongolera pafupipafupi kwapamalo", "kuyimira m'mphepete", ndi mautumiki ena kuti achepetse kupanikizika kwa gridi yamagetsi.

Kuchokera pamawonedwe athunthu, pansi pa mgwirizano wochepetsera mtengo komanso kufunikira kosiyanasiyana, mbali zogulitsira ndi zofunidwa zikuyenda mwachangu, ndipo msika ukusintha pang'onopang'ono kuchoka ku "zoyendetsedwa ndi zinthu" kupita ku "zofuna-koka".

Chachinayi, njira yosungiramo mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi yosinthira ndalama

1. Peak ndi Valley Arbitrage ndi Peak Kumeta, ndi Kudzaza Chigwa

* Mabizinesi amatha kupulumutsa 15% -30% ya mtengo wamagetsi pakulipiritsa panthawi yachigwa komanso kutulutsa panthawi yokwera kwambiri.

* Kuphatikizidwa ndi kupanga mphamvu ya photovoltaic, kuchuluka kwa kudzigwiritsira ntchito kumawonjezeka kufika pa 70%, kumachepetsanso nthawi yobwezera.

2. Pemphani mayankho ndi ntchito zothandizira

* Kuchita nawo ntchito zothandizira monga kuwongolera pafupipafupi, kuyimirira mozungulira, kuyambika kwakuda, ndi zina zambiri pamsika wamagetsi, ndi kubweza kwapachaka kwa 2% -5% (malingana ndi malamulo amsika amderalo).

* Ndalama zomwe msika umapezeka m'maiko ena zimakhala 10-20% ya ndalama zonse.

3. Energy Management Contracts (EMCs) ndi kugawana mphamvu zosungirako

* Makampani a gulu lachitatu loyang'anira mphamvu (ESCOs) amathandiza makasitomala amalonda ndi mafakitale kuti akwaniritse "zero threshold" kutumiza ndikuchepetsa kupanikizika kwa likulu kudzera mu chitsanzo cha "zero-investment power buy share".

* Mtundu wa Multi-User Virtual Power Plant (VPP), womwe umaphatikiza zinthu zosungiramo mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kuti apeze ndalama zambiri pamsika wamagetsi. 4.

4. Msika wa Carbon ndi Carbon Allowance Trading

* Njira zosungiramo mphamvu zimatha kulumikizidwa ndi nsanja zogulitsira kaboni kuti azindikire kuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni ndikupeza mbiri ya kaboni pochepetsa kugula kwamphamvu kwa carbon.

Zopindulitsa zamitundu yosiyanasiyana, kotero kuti ntchito zosungiramo mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda sizingokhala ndi ntchito yopulumutsa ndalama, komanso pang'onopang'ono kukhala gawo latsopano lakukula kwa phindu.

Kusungirako mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kuyimirira madzulo a "chitukuko chophulika". Kuchokera ku gawo lazagawidwe, kuchuluka kwa msika, kugawa ndi kufunidwa bwino mpaka kupindula kosiyanasiyana, zinthu zonse zikulozera ku mfundo yomweyi: chaka chamawa chidzakhala malo osungiramo mphamvu zamafakitale ndi zamalonda kuti apititse patsogolo kukwera ndi kukula kwa kugwiritsa ntchito nthawi yovuta. Kwa opanga zida zosungira mphamvu, makampani othandizira mphamvu, ndi ogwiritsa ntchito mabizinesi, masanjidwe oyambilira, kulima mwakuya mayankho akumaloko kudzapambana mwayi wamsika.